UFC 295 is finally here, and boy is it a stacked card! We will see Jiri Prochazka take on Alex Pereira for the light-heavyweight gold. Plus, the Co-Main is an absolute cracker. Sergei Pavlovich will take on Tom Aspinall at heavyweight for the interim title– don't blink.
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Check out all our UFC tips for UFC 295 including predictions for the Main Event, as well as two other fights on the card:
Best Bet - Prochazka v Pereira – At Least 1 Total Rounds Completed - $1.45
This is going to be absolute fireworks. Two highly technical and dangerous men go toe-to-toe. Both fighters have had impressive runs in the UFC already, and it’s tough to pick a winner. If I had to, I’d probably go with Pereira, he looks amazing at light-heavyweight without the harsh weight cuts and is certainly the more active fighter.
However, I'd rather play it safe for the best bet. Out of all their fights, only 3 have actually ended in less than 1.5 rounds. Although both men are dangerous, have knockout power and are highly skilled, I think the first round will be a feel-out.
I can’t see either man rushing in too early. I can see them fighting at a distance and looking for their range. The pace should pick up outside of 2 rounds with both getting more active. Let’s go safe, I think $1.45 for more than 1 round is a great one in such a close matchup.
Next Best - Pavlovich vs Aspinall - Aspinall to Win - $1.85
I’m extremely excited for the Co-Main interim bout. I’m a huge fan of both these fighters and their styles collectively. This is going to be wild, and when they both start swinging, it could be fight of the night. In fact, this could be fight of the year if it goes the distance. That’s the thing, I really don’t think this one is going too long.
All you have to do is bring up their records to get an idea of what these men can do. Sergei hasn’t made it past the first round since 2017. Only 3 of his 19 fights have made it past the 5-minute mark, with 5 fights coming before the 1-minute mark.
With that being said, Aspinall has 6 fights that ended in less than a minute and 3 that made it outside the first round. I highly recommend you don’t go and make a coffee when this one starts, because it may be over. I’m taking Tom to win. He doesn’t move like a heavyweight, and I think his footwork and defence will pave his path to victory.
We haven’t seen what Sergei’s gas tank is like, and he has been a little flat-footed at times. If he engages in a wild exchange, I think he could get caught. Because Aspinall is a little more diverse, I think he’ll find his opening and catch Sergei. The longer it goes, the better it is for Aspinall. I’m backing him at $1.85.
Value Bet - Dern v Andrade - Dern to Win by Submission - $2.40
Another interesting fight on the Main Card. Mackenzie Dern takes on Jessica Andrade. Andrade has certainly been active in 2023, with 4 fights under her belt. However, these haven’t all been wins. She’s lost her 3 most recent fights, all by stoppage, with only 1 win in 2023. Dern is a pretty well-rounded fighter, with plenty of submission wins.
Her 4 last fights have ended in decision, but with Andrade, I think she may find an opening. It feels like the perfect time for Dern to capitalise, I think we could see one of her armbars, that she executes so well.
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