Tony Adams NRL Footy Tips
NRL29 May 2023

Expert NRL Tips For State of Origin Game 1, 2023

It's State of Origin time, baby! It's the most exciting time of the year, when the best of the best clash, fighting for glory and bragging rights. The NSW Blues will be looking for revenge as they lost the 2022 State of Origin 2-1, despite being the favourites in that series. Looking further back, the Blues have won three of the last five, so the Queensland Maroons will be looking to even that up this year. The last time a team won the series 3-0 was all the way back in 2010.

Our State of Origin tips cover all the key factors that will influence Game 1. So, if you are as obsessed with the NRL as the team at Dabble are, you have certainly come to the right place! Get your scrolling finger ready, all you need to do is read and scroll, our experts will take care of everything else for you.

Check out all our expert State of Origin tips for Game 1 below:

Match Winner

Nathan Cleary is a big-match player and with the Blues team chock full of Panthers, he will feel very comfortable on the game’s biggest stage. When it comes to the man of the match, it usually goes to a playmaker in the big games and with that in mind, I think the Panthers star is good value. He will play a major role in getting the Blues across the line.

Tony's Expert State of Origin Tip: New South Wales Blues


Queensland are the new favourites following Latrell’s injury at -0.5 on the Dabble app. It’s always hard predicting who will win when you throw 34 of the NRL’s best players together with a short preparation but on a neutral track, I like the Blues. They HAVE to win, with Game 2 in Brisbane.

Tony's Expert State of Origin Tip: New South Wales Blues +0.5

Total Points

It’s Game 1 of the series and both teams will be nervous, cautious and prepared to sit back and feel each other out. For that reason, I think it will be very tight and close, with the unders being a good proposition – especially now that Latrell Mitchell, who can both score points and let them in, is a late withdrawal.

Tony's Expert State of Origin Tip: Under 35.5

First Tryscorer

Always a lottery picking the first tryscorer in any match, but Brian To’o is a machine and close to the line, his pace and power make him deadly. At $10 on Dabble, he presents some pretty good value and his form this season has been good. His confidence should help play a part in getting him over the line.

Tony's Expert State of Origin Tip: Brian To’o

Anytime Tryscorer

James Tedesco hasn’t been at his best form with the Roosters this season – but the whole team has been struggling. With inform players around him, I think he will return to his best and as captain, knows he needs a huge game to get the Blues home. Good value at $3.00.

Tony's Expert State of Origin Tip: James Tedesco

We told you our State of Origin betting tips were on point! If reading our State of Origin Game 1 preview has got you all fired up, make sure you head on over to the Dabble app, get all your bets sorted and share your thoughts in the Banter channel.